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         VII. Appendix II (Estimation of Credit R...










 

Framework for Voluntary Oversight

VII. Appendix II (Estimation of Credit Risk)

Estimation of Credit Risk

Description of the Methodology:

The methodology for estimating credit risk would include estimates of both current credit risks and potential additional credit risks. These estimates would be based on the net replacement values, current and projected, respectively, associated with each counterparty. The projections of potential additional credit risk would reflect the effects of adverse market conditions on the firm's exposure to the counterparty, would require the revaluation of all open positions and would be based on the models described in the discussion on evaluation of risk in relation to capital. Additionally, the computations would take into account enforceable netting agreements and collateral held.

Both current and potential additional credit risks would be weighted on the basis of the rating agencies' published probability of default statistics relevant to the maturity of the underlying contracts, based on the same maturity assumptions to be used in the calculation of current credit risk (but in no event would a probability below 0.001 be used). As a practical matter, the projections of potential additional credit risks would be based upon a single maturity assumption for each type of underlying instrument (e.g., all interest rate swaps would be assumed to mature in five years).




Illustration of the Methodology:

COUNTERPARTY INFORMATION


Current Net Replacement Values
Credit Rating
Swaps F/X Forwards
Class
AA
0.00.0
Class
A
520.0 65.0
Class
BBB
8.00.0

Projected Net Replacement Values
Credit Rating
Swaps F/X Forwards
Class
AA
12.0 3.0
Class
A
2,020.0 130.0
Class
BBB
18.0 1.0

Additional Projected Net Replacement Values
Credit Rating
Swaps F/X Forwards
Class
AA
12.03.0
Class
A
1,500.0 65.0
Class
BBB
10.0 1.0





ESTIMATED CURRENT EXPOSURE

Net Replacement Value
Default Ratio
Estimated Current Exposure
Class AA
Swaps 0.0.001.000
F/X Forwards 0.0.001.000
Class A
Swaps 520.0.0063.120
F/X Forwards 65.0 .001.065
Class BBB
Swaps 8.0.020.160
F/X Forwards 0.0.002.000
Total Estimated

Current Exposure


3.345





ESTIMATED POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL EXPOSURE

Additional Projected Net Replacement Value
Default Ratio
Estimated Potential Additional Exposure
Class AA
Swaps 12.0.001.012
F/X Forwards 3.0.001.003
Class A
Swaps 1,500.0.0069.000
F/X Forwards 65.0 .001.065
Class BBB
Swaps 10.0.020.200
F/X Forwards 1.0.002.002
Total Estimated Potential Additional Exposure

9.282
Total Estimated Current Exposure
3.345
Total Credit Exposure
12.627

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