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Forward Surprise
The component of a currency's return that exceeds the rate of return implied by the forward rate. For example, if at the beginning of the period the forward rate equals 1.50 and the spot rate equals 1.55, the forward implied return is: (1.50 / 1.55) - 1 = -3.23%. If the spot rate at the end of the period equals 1.53, the forward surprise equals: [(1.53 / 1.55) - 1] - [(1.50 / 1.55) - 1] = 1.94%.
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